Hull will be favourites to progress here considering Birmingham's lack of confidence, but the Tigers could have been handed an easier draw in the third round.
Blues are likely to adopt a defence-minded approach as they look to steady the ship ahead of the new manager's arrival, although we believe that Saturday afternoon will end in defeat for Spooner's side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hull City win with a probability of 51.61%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 24.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hull City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-2 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
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