SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Serbia | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 7 | -7 | 3 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Serbia | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 7 | -7 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 45.71%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hungary would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hungary | Draw | Montenegro |
45.71% ( 0.06) | 27.08% ( -0.04) | 27.21% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.81% ( 0.14) | 57.19% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.96% ( 0.11) | 78.04% ( -0.11) |
| Hungary Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( 0.09) | 24.97% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.38% ( 0.13) | 59.62% ( -0.12) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.37% ( 0.06) | 36.63% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.58% ( 0.06) | 73.42% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hungary | Draw | Montenegro |
| 1-0 @ 12.69% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.8% 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 45.7% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.08% | 0-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.14% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.84% Total : 27.21% |
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