SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Serbia | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 36.61%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.4%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (12.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Hungary in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Hungary.
| Result | ||
| Hungary | Draw | Serbia |
36.61% ( 0.23) | 29.57% ( 0.09) | 33.82% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 43.24% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.24% ( -0.29) | 63.76% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.99% ( -0.2) | 83.02% ( 0.21) |
| Hungary Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.7% ( -0.01) | 33.3% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.08% ( -0.01) | 69.92% ( 0.01) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.83% ( -0.37) | 35.17% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.08% ( -0.39) | 71.93% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hungary | Draw | Serbia |
| 1-0 @ 12.87% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.71% 3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 36.6% | 1-1 @ 13.45% 0-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.56% | 0-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.14% Total : 33.82% |
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