SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 78.42%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 6.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.79%) and 3-0 (11.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.91%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Oxford United |
78.42% ( 0.17) | 14.63% ( -0.11) | 6.95% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 40.47% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.39% ( 0.24) | 41.6% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.99% ( 0.24) | 64.01% ( -0.24) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.34% ( 0.1) | 8.66% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.16% ( 0.23) | 29.84% ( -0.24) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.3% ( -0.02) | 55.7% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.71% ( -0.01) | 88.29% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Oxford United |
| 2-0 @ 14.43% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.79% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.02% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.4% Total : 78.41% | 1-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.43% Total : 14.63% | 0-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.11% Total : 6.95% |
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