Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.05%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
0.28) 
-0.08) 
