Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 35.24%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.93%) and 2-1 (6.87%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (13.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.
-0.54) 
0.27) 
