SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 60.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Metz |
60.92% ( -0.66) | 21.16% ( 0.07) | 17.92% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 54.04% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.18% ( 0.64) | 42.82% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.78% ( 0.63) | 65.22% ( -0.63) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.41% ( 0.01) | 13.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.29% ( 0.01) | 40.7% ( -0.02) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.53% ( 1.05) | 37.46% ( -1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.75% ( 1.02) | 74.24% ( -1.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Metz |
| 1-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.28)2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.92% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.16% | 0-1 @ 5% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.37% Total : 17.92% |
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