SM
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 45.19%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luxembourg | Draw | Northern Ireland |
45.19% ( 1.38) | 28% ( -0.27) | 26.8% ( -1.11) |
| Both teams to score 44.77% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.41% ( 0.37) | 60.58% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.31% ( 0.28) | 80.68% ( -0.28) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.22% ( 0.89) | 26.78% ( -0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.93% ( 1.17) | 62.06% ( -1.17) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.15% ( -0.73) | 38.85% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.42% ( -0.69) | 75.58% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luxembourg | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 9.03% ( 0.32)2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.89% Total : 45.18% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28% | 0-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.52% Total : 26.8% |
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