SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ukraine | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Romania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 91.77%. A draw had a probability of 6.3% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 1.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 4-0 (12.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.97%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (0.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Belgium in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Belgium.
| Result | ||
| Belgium | Draw | Luxembourg |
91.77% ( 1.55) | 6.33% ( -1) | 1.9% ( -0.55) |
| Both teams to score 31.61% ( -2.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.45% ( 1.28) | 26.55% ( -1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.09% ( 1.62) | 46.91% ( -1.62) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.75% ( 0.44) | 3.25% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.6% ( 1.47) | 14.39% ( -1.47) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 32.67% ( -3.11) | 67.33% ( 3.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 6.04% ( -1.3) | 93.96% ( 1.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgium | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 3-0 @ 14.67% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 12.85% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 12.56% ( 0.86)5-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.89)1-0 @ 7.5% ( -0.32)3-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.48)2-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.63)4-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.21)6-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.67)5-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)7-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.4)6-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.24)8-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.2)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.17)7-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.93% Total : 91.76% | 1-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.5) 0-0 @ 2.19% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.26)Other @ 0.17% Total : 6.33% | Other @ 1.9% Total : 1.9% |
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