SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 19.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Belarus win it was 0-1 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luxembourg | Draw | Belarus |
54.57% ( 0.14) | 26.15% ( -0.01) | 19.28% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 41.9% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.78% ( -0.12) | 60.22% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.6% ( -0.09) | 80.4% ( 0.09) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.75% ( 0.01) | 22.25% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.31% ( 0.01) | 55.69% ( -0.01) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.89% ( -0.23) | 46.11% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.2% ( -0.17) | 81.81% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luxembourg | Draw | Belarus |
| 1-0 @ 15.42% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 54.56% | 1-1 @ 11.93% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.48% Total : 26.15% | 0-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.45% Total : 19.28% |
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