SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bulgaria in this match.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Northern Ireland |
46.51% ( -0.39) | 26.55% ( 0.02) | 26.94% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 48.88% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.62% ( 0.16) | 55.38% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( 0.13) | 76.58% ( -0.13) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( -0.12) | 23.79% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.05% ( -0.17) | 57.95% ( 0.17) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.13% ( 0.4) | 35.87% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.36% ( 0.41) | 72.65% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.64% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.55% | 0-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.94% |
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