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L
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Gerard Houllier
M

Lyon
2 - 3
Marseille

Caleta-Car (53'), Cherki (90+3')
Mata (45+1'), Lacazette (59'), Caleta-Car (90+3'), Cherki (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Lirola (69'), Garcia (82'), Rowe (90+5')
Balerdi (1'), De Zerbi (45+8'), Maupay (90+3')
Balerdi (5')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-2 Marseille

Form can often go out the window in such fiercely-fought derby matches, but the start Marseille have made means they are full value as favourites in this one. Lyon's suspect defence matched against Marseille's prolific attack should give the visitors the edge, despite the fact they will be playing against a raucous atmosphere with no away fans in attendance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
34.37% (0.134 0.13) 24.21% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01) 41.41% (-0.11 -0.11)
Both teams to score 60.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.7% (0.116 0.12)42.31% (-0.104 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.29% (0.114 0.11)64.71% (-0.10300000000001 -0.1)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.83% (0.13200000000001 0.13)24.17% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.51% (0.181 0.18)58.49% (-0.171 -0.17)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (0.00099999999999056 0)20.59% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)53.13% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 34.37%
    Marseille 41.41%
    Draw 24.21%
LyonDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.018 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.02% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.75% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.33% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 34.37%
1-1 @ 11.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.27% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.21%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.21% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.27% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.3% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.29% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 41.41%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 4-3 Strasbourg
Friday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 0-2 Monaco
Saturday, August 24 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 3-0 Lyon
Sunday, August 18 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Arsenal 2-0 Lyon
Sunday, August 11 at 2pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-4 Lyon
Saturday, August 3 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 1-3 Marseille
Saturday, August 31 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Reims
Sunday, August 25 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 1-5 Marseille
Saturday, August 17 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Augsburg 1-3 Marseille
Saturday, August 10 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Sunderland 2-2 Marseille
Saturday, August 3 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 3


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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