SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Marseille |
34.37% ( 0.13) | 24.21% ( -0.01) | 41.41% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.7% ( 0.12) | 42.31% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.29% ( 0.11) | 64.71% ( -0.1) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.83% ( 0.13) | 24.17% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.51% ( 0.18) | 58.49% ( -0.17) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.41% ( 0) | 20.59% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.87% ( -0.01) | 53.13% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lyon | Draw | Marseille |
| 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.88% Total : 34.37% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.21% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.84% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.3% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 41.41% |
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