SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 55.14%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Malta had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.93%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Greece in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Greece.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | Greece |
21.24% ( 0.35) | 23.62% ( 0.12) | 55.14% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 51.64% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.23% ( -0.06) | 48.76% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.13% ( -0.06) | 70.87% ( 0.05) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.62% ( 0.31) | 37.37% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.84% ( 0.31) | 74.15% ( -0.31) |
| Greece Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.45% ( -0.19) | 17.54% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.91% ( -0.33) | 48.08% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | Greece |
| 1-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.64% Total : 21.24% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.62% | 0-1 @ 11.41% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 9.93% ( -0.1)1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.76% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 5.67% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.51% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.61% Total : 55.14% |
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