Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Swindon Town had a probability of 17.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 1-0 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a Swindon Town win it was 1-2 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
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