Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
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