Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 49.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Swindon Town had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Swindon Town win it was 0-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
