Both teams have a lot to play for, so we expect to see a tight defensive showdown, which should favour the visitors, who have only gone pointless twice this year in domestic fixtures decided by a goal or fewer.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 48.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Metz had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.55%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Metz win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
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