SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Venezuela | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Jamaica | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 51.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 23.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | New Zealand |
51.76% ( -0.21) | 25.09% ( 0.18) | 23.15% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 49.63% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.35% ( -0.67) | 52.65% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.7% ( -0.57) | 74.3% ( 0.58) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.66% ( -0.35) | 20.34% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.27% ( -0.56) | 52.73% ( 0.57) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.3% ( -0.34) | 37.7% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.52% ( -0.34) | 74.48% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | New Zealand |
| 1-0 @ 12.21% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.64% Total : 51.75% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.88% Total : 25.09% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 1.63% Total : 23.15% |
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