Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 42.69%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
-0.58) 
0.09) 
