Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.