Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 47.7%. A win for Modena had a probability of 26.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.12) 
