Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for Modena had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Modena win was 1-0 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.01) 
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