Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.07%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 2-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.