SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 23.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
23.14% ( -0.02) | 22.06% ( -0.01) | 54.8% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.44% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.35% ( 0.05) | 39.65% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38% ( 0.05) | 62% ( -0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.48% ( 0.01) | 30.52% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.25% ( 0.01) | 66.74% ( -0) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.56% ( 0.03) | 14.44% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.61% ( 0.06) | 42.39% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 6.01% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.1% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.38% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 23.14% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.06% | 1-2 @ 9.79% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.25% 1-3 @ 6.32% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.75% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.81% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.18% ( 0)0-5 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 3.21% Total : 54.8% |
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