To say that Union Berlin are totally devoid of attacking inspiration would be unfair, as the Iron Ones troubled the Napoli backline on several occasions two weeks ago, only to be let down by poor finishing.
However, Fischer's men ought to see their powers wane even more in Naples, where a 13th defeat of the season will end their top-two chances while taking Napoli ever closer to a place in the last-16 draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 1-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
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