SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.26%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.79% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (5.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Union Berlin |
57.26% ( 0.31) | 20.95% ( -0.05) | 21.79% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 61.54% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.95% ( -0.12) | 36.04% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.85% ( -0.13) | 58.14% ( 0.13) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.5% ( 0.05) | 12.5% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.51% ( 0.11) | 38.49% ( -0.11) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.33% ( -0.3) | 29.66% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.29% ( -0.36) | 65.71% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.18% Total : 57.26% | 1-1 @ 9.37% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.95% | 1-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.04% Total : 21.79% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
