SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for NEC had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
35.12% ( 0.6) | 25.07% ( 0.16) | 39.8% ( -0.77) |
| Both teams to score 57.31% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.84% ( -0.66) | 46.16% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.54% ( -0.63) | 68.45% ( 0.62) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.45% ( 0.03) | 25.55% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.59% ( 0.05) | 60.41% ( -0.06) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.97% ( -0.67) | 23.03% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.16% ( -0.99) | 56.84% ( 0.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 35.12% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.06% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.24% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.18% Total : 39.8% |
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