While NEC have been impressive this term following a promotion, AZ Alkmaar pose a particularly tough test, and we see the hosts falling short of a result. Jensen's men have been the form side of the division in recent months, and, after a cup defeat, they will be particularly desperate for another league win to extend their run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 53.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for NEC had a probability of 23.09%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a NEC win it was 1-0 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
23.09%	23.5%	53.41%

Both teams to score 54.47%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.8%

46.21%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.5%

68.5%

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.82%

34.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.12%

70.88%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.76%

17.24%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.45%

47.55%

Score Analysis

NEC 23.09%

AZ Alkmaar 53.4%

Draw 23.5%

NEC	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 6.33% 2-1 @ 5.97% 2-0 @ 3.4% 3-1 @ 2.14% 3-2 @ 1.88% 3-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.17% Total : 23.09%	1-1 @ 11.12% 0-0 @ 5.89% 2-2 @ 5.25% 3-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 10.36% 1-2 @ 9.78% 0-2 @ 9.11% 1-3 @ 5.73% 0-3 @ 5.34% 2-3 @ 3.07% 1-4 @ 2.52% 0-4 @ 2.35% 2-4 @ 1.35% Other @ 3.81% Total : 53.4%