SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
42.37% ( 0.11) | 24.52% ( -0.03) | 33.11% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 58.73% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.92% ( 0.1) | 44.08% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.53% ( 0.1) | 66.47% ( -0.1) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.1% ( 0.1) | 20.9% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.38% ( 0.15) | 53.62% ( -0.15) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.25% | 25.75% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.32% ( -0) | 60.68% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 42.37% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.52% | 1-2 @ 7.76% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.75% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.11% |
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