SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 61.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Scotland win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | Scotland |
61.32% ( -0.14) | 21.6% ( 0.08) | 17.07% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 50.88% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.84% ( -0.21) | 46.16% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.54% ( -0.2) | 68.46% ( 0.2) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.45% ( -0.11) | 14.55% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.41% ( -0.22) | 42.59% ( 0.22) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.55% ( -0.05) | 40.45% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.94% ( -0.04) | 77.06% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | Scotland |
| 1-0 @ 11.34% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 61.32% | 1-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.97% Total : 21.59% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 17.07% |
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