SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 54.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Scotland win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Scotland |
54.35% ( 1.55) | 23.91% ( -0.39) | 21.73% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 51.41% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.6% ( 0.34) | 49.4% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.55% ( 0.31) | 71.44% ( -0.31) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.92% ( 0.72) | 18.07% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.01% ( 1.22) | 48.99% ( -1.22) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.75% ( -0.92) | 37.25% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.97% ( -0.92) | 74.03% ( 0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Scotland |
| 1-0 @ 11.51% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.31)2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.3)3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.41% Total : 54.35% | 1-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.91% | 0-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.67% Total : 21.73% |
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