SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Greece | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 6 | -21 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 70.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.68%), while for a Scotland win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Scotland |
70.5% ( 0.09) | 18.26% ( -0.14) | 11.25% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.35% ( 0.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.92% ( 0.74) | 44.08% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.53% ( 0.72) | 66.47% ( -0.72) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.73% ( 0.23) | 11.27% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.14% ( 0.5) | 35.87% ( -0.5) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.23% ( 0.57) | 47.77% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.94% ( 0.42) | 83.06% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Scotland |
| 2-0 @ 12.82% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 11.75% ( -0.27)2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.54% Total : 70.49% | 1-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.69% Total : 18.26% | 0-1 @ 3.98% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.6% Total : 11.25% |
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