SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Malta | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Scotland had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Scotland win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Scotland | Draw | England |
31.66% ( 0.21) | 27.61% ( 0.13) | 40.73% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 48.25% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.64% ( -0.42) | 57.36% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.82% ( -0.34) | 78.18% ( 0.34) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.69% ( -0.07) | 33.31% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.07% ( -0.08) | 69.93% ( 0.09) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.36% ( -0.38) | 27.64% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.82% ( -0.49) | 63.18% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Scotland | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.62% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.48% Total : 31.66% | 1-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 11.84% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.37% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 7.61% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.88% Total : 40.73% |
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