SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 5 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 5 | -17 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 5 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 36.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | France |
36.98% ( -1.9) | 25.18% ( 0.2) | 37.84% ( 1.7) |
| Both teams to score 57.1% ( -0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.49% ( -0.87) | 46.51% ( 0.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.21% ( -0.82) | 68.79% ( 0.82) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.33% ( -1.4) | 24.67% ( 1.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.8% ( -2) | 59.19% ( 2) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.79% ( 0.53) | 24.2% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.46% ( 0.74) | 58.54% ( -0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | France |
| 1-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.28)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.24)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.86% Total : 36.98% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.18% | 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 8.41% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.39)1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.23)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.94% Total : 37.84% |
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