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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.44%) and 0-2 (5.63%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
34.42% ( 0.69) | 22.91% ( 0.22) | 42.68% ( -0.9) |
| Both teams to score 65.12% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.1% ( -0.87) | 35.9% ( 0.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.01% ( -0.96) | 57.99% ( 0.97) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.83% ( -0.04) | 21.17% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.97% ( -0.07) | 54.03% ( 0.07) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.61% ( -0.71) | 17.39% ( 0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.19% ( -1.25) | 47.81% ( 1.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.75% Total : 34.42% | 1-1 @ 10% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.91% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.1% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.07)Other @ 4.13% Total : 42.68% |
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