Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 47.19%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
