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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.7%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.2%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
50.7% ( 0.3) | 21.4% ( 0.09) | 27.9% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 67.07% ( -0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.15% ( -0.76) | 31.84% ( 0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.62% ( -0.89) | 53.38% ( 0.89) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.97% ( -0.18) | 13.03% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.42% ( -0.36) | 39.58% ( 0.36) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.12% ( -0.63) | 22.88% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.38% ( -0.94) | 56.62% ( 0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.17)1-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.3% Total : 50.7% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.4% | 1-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.4% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.08% Total : 27.9% |
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