SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
31.03% ( 1.2) | 23.22% ( 0.37) | 45.75% ( -1.57) |
| Both teams to score 62.49% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.24% ( -1.13) | 38.76% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.93% ( -1.2) | 61.07% ( 1.21) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.57% ( 0.18) | 24.43% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.14% ( 0.25) | 58.85% ( -0.25) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.68% ( -1.03) | 17.31% ( 1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.33% ( -1.84) | 47.67% ( 1.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.34)2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.03% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.22% | 1-2 @ 9.17% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.15)1-4 @ 2.35% ( -0.19)0-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.13)Other @ 4.06% Total : 45.75% |
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