Wimbledon will be targeting all three points to aid in their promotion push, but we think that they may have to settle for a share of the spoils, especially as four of their previous five meetings between the two sides have finished all square.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Newport County win it was 1-0 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
-0.35) 
0.06) 
