Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
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