SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ghana | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Niger | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Niger had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.48%), while for a Niger win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uganda would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Niger | Draw | Uganda |
18.66% ( -0) | 27.71% ( 0.01) | 53.63% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 37.5% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.51% ( -0.02) | 65.49% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.77% ( -0.02) | 84.23% ( 0.01) |
| Niger Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.99% ( -0.01) | 50.01% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.33% ( -0.01) | 84.67% ( 0.01) |
| Uganda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( -0.01) | 24.97% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.39% ( -0.02) | 59.62% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Niger | Draw | Uganda |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.16% ( -0)2-0 @ 3% 3-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.89% Total : 18.66% | 0-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 12% 2-2 @ 2.89% ( -0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 17.32% 0-2 @ 12.02% 1-2 @ 8.33% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.56% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.85% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.93% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 53.63% |
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