SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 54.72%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Uganda had a probability of 18.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.99%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Uganda win it was 1-0 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uganda | Draw | Algeria |
18.56% ( 0.38) | 26.72% ( 0.11) | 54.72% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 39.54% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.26% ( 0.06) | 62.74% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.72% ( 0.04) | 82.28% ( -0.04) |
| Uganda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.52% ( 0.5) | 48.47% ( -0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.42% ( 0.36) | 83.58% ( -0.36) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.74% ( -0.19) | 23.26% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.81% ( -0.28) | 57.19% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uganda | Draw | Algeria |
| 1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.08% Total : 18.56% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.39% Total : 26.71% | 0-1 @ 16.44% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 11.99% ( -0.16)1-2 @ 8.68% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.83% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 54.71% |
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