SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 2-1 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
33.15% ( 0.16) | 24.1% ( 0.03) | 42.74% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 60.23% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.87% ( -0.11) | 42.12% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.47% ( -0.11) | 64.53% ( 0.11) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.21% ( 0.04) | 24.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.64% ( 0.06) | 59.35% ( -0.06) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.08% ( -0.14) | 19.92% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.94% ( -0.21) | 52.05% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 2.7% Total : 33.15% | 1-1 @ 11.11% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.1% | 1-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.82% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 42.74% |
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