SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Orenburg | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Fakel | 7 | -7 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Orenburg | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 6 | -5 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 27.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
47.51% ( 0.01) | 25.25% ( -0.01) | 27.25% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 53.03% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.93% ( 0.04) | 50.07% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.95% ( 0.03) | 72.04% ( -0.03) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.9% ( 0.02) | 21.1% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.08% ( 0.03) | 53.92% ( -0.03) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.21% ( 0.02) | 32.79% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.65% ( 0.02) | 69.35% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 10.76% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.38% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.84% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.34% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.7% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 47.5% | 1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0)3-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.25% |
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