Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0) 
