Looking at past results between the sides, we anticipate a cagey affair at the Estadio Capital do Movel. Rio Ave have struggled for results away from home, where they have managed just two wins in the league this season, and we predict that Pacos de Ferreira will come away with a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 48.57%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 25.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
0.29) 
-0.31) 
