Given the stakes of this game, we predict that Maritimo and Pacos de Ferreira will take a cautious approach in a bid to avoid dropping valuable points. We predict both sides will cancel out each other's efforts and hold out for a point apiece.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.13) 
