Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
-1.36) 
0.39) 
