Verdao were not themselves against Fortaleza, but they usually play well after a poor performance, and we believe they will do enough to earn a narrow victory against a Corinthians side struggling in the attacking third.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 66.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 12.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.14%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
-0.68) 
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